politics | india politics

This is as close as it gets. The gloves were off as UPA and the Opposition squared off for the July 22 trust vote with the numbers still too close to call and both sides resorting to snatch-and-dash tactics to poach rival MPs, escalating a ding-dong battle marked by desperate deal-making and breathtaking brinksmanship.
With each and every vote now absolutely crucial, late night reports suggest that CPM has renewed pressure on Somnath Chatterjee to quit as Speaker after publicly saying it was up to him to decide.
The all-out poaching drive saw Samajwadi Party leader Amar Singh displaying BJP MP from Balrampur Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh to the media on Sunday evening and UPA managers hinting that there were more defections in the pipeline. They suggested two JD(U) MPs--P P Koya and Ramswaroop Prasad--would part company with NDA.
The government's determined drive to drum up numbers lay in the early morning shock it received with RLD chief Ajit Singh turning up at Mayawati's residence and announcing that he was in the anti-UPA camp. The Jat leader slipped away from right under the UPA's nose after days of negotiations during which he was assured a "generous" seatsharing formula in his bastion of western UP.
The Ajit Singh turnaround was not the only bad news for the ruling coalition. A little later, JD(S) chief H D Deve Gowda despatched his son and party MP Shivanna to a very political lunch hosted by TDP at the residence of former minister K Yerran Naidu. By evening, the Vokkaliga leader had formally announced his decision to go against govt.
RLD and JD(S) account for five MPs -- one JD(S) MP, M P Virendra Kumar, had already defected to the Opposition -- and equal the five JMM MPs who are now with UPA. JMM's Soren met Congress chief Sonia Gandhi for almost an hour. He will be inducted as Cabinet minister soon along with an MoS and his son Durga will replace one of two deputy CMs in the Madhu Koda government in Jharkhand.
Though set back by Ajit Singh and Deve Gowda, UPA managers tried to recoup their losses by targeting Shiv Sena MPs and others belonging to the NDA. They refused to drop the claim even after 11 of the 12 Sainik MPs attended a dinner hosted by Leader of Opposition L K Advani on Sunday.
The rival camp, led by Mayawati, was ready to retaliate by raiding the pro-deal garrison. Mayawati told UNPA and Left leaders that more SP MPs were likely to bolt. As it is, five SP MPs have said they will oppose the government. As things stand, including JMM and rebel BJP MPs, the UPA tally comes to 265 MPs, but along with NC two MPs, who are expected to announce support for government on Monday, that number should swell to 267. The combined Opposition figure is 268. But what makes these figures less than certain is the prospect of desertions. The trigger could be disgruntlement or a handsome settlement.
Officially, the undecided numbers now stand at just five MPs. These are Independent MPs Thupstan Chhewang (Ladakh), Mani Charenamei (outer Manipur) and S Bwismuthiary, Mizo National Front (1) and Nagaland People's Front (1). Congress feels that Bwiswmuthiary will support UPA.
The numbers game
UPA can count on 268 MPs. A couple of Independents might join. The combined opposition tally is 270. This figure might be eroded by defections. There are just four undecided votes. These can split between UPA and opposition. It is still anybody’s match
Political slugfest
UPA gets a jolt with RLD chief Ajit Singh and JD(S) leader Deve Gowda joining hands with Mayawati. In a counter move, it secures Soren’s support and claims two JD(U) MPs are set to defect. Amar Singh parades BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh
Emerging alliances
Third Front may have got a new leader in Mayawati. Though cooperation limited at present, poll pacts cannot be ruled out. Even if UPA loses, Cong-SP pact will endure. NDA hopes that some UNPA parties like INLD and AGP will join it. Left-BSP dialogue to continue ‘Two AP Cong MPs may quit’
New Delhi: UPA is expecting National Conference to join its ranks for the July 22 trust vote, and feels that Independent MPs Thupstan Chhewang and S Bwiswmuthiary will follow suit as will Nagaland People's Front. In such a scenario, the UPA numbers will rise to 270 MPs. This is clearly is precarious and the coalition is therefore expected to concentrate on ensuring a few more defections.
Taut nerves were in evidence right through the day. TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu, who is camping in New Delhi, said the numbers were slipping away from the UPA but agreed that counter-poaching was a concern as the government was going full throttle in trying to breach Opposition defences.
Apart from NC, Congress expects that at least two Independents and one North-east party will join the UPA ranks. These additions along with disaffected elements cross-voting would see the government through, it is felt.
RLD and JD(S) account for five MPs -- one JD(S) MP, M P Virendra Kumar, had already defected to the Opposition -- and equal the five JMM MPs who are now with UPA. JMM's Soren met Congress chief Sonia Gandhi for almost an hour.
He will be inducted as Cabinet minister soon along with an MoS and his son Durga will replace one of the two deputy CMs in the Madhu Koda government in Jharkhand.
These developments put an intense focus on the two-MP National Conference with good reason. With claims flying thick and fast, it was difficult to separate hype from fact. If the UPA was laying claims to the loyalties of some Shiv Sena MPs, UNPA said that at least two Congress MPs from Andhra Pradesh were keen to leave the party. The churn saw party bosses monitor MPs and in some case even depute bouncers and private detectives to keep an eye on those with suspect loyalties. Most in demand, as has been the case, were little-known Independents who could hardly have anticipated the limelight.
The bid to mobilise every vote continued apace. BJP said that ex-film star Dharmendra would indeed be back for the vote. Its two MPs who are in hospital will also be there as will be party patriarch Atal Bihari Vajpayee. This will in some measure make up for the loss of two MPs -- rebel Somabhai and the defector Brijbhushan Sharan Singh.
The mood of political leaders was fittingly grim. SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav held a press conference to hit out hard at what he called the alliance of the two "Lals" -- the Left and BJP leader Lal Krishna Advani -- the poin obviously being that the comrades had betrayed the "secular" cause. He caustically noted that Left leaders -- the allusion clearly being to CPM boss Prakash Karat -- had fought "communalism" through statements while he had done so on the streets.
The tough talking did not perturb Karat who has teamed up in a vengeance play with Mayawati, provoked by the Congress-SP alliance and a recent CBI move against her, and TDP leader Naidu who is smarting over SP having brought his "third front" project crashing down.
All three have scores to settle with Congress and are leaving no stone unturned, even informally liaising with the BJP.